Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 80865.957298 85353.345131 89840.940926 94662.348020 99692.653409 104782.942854 110320.101003
2026-01-25 73395.878484 80228.342938 87252.117198 95002.630092 103305.475749 111923.429701 121534.904409
2026-02-01 67763.674807 76167.640363 84997.728223 94947.621077 105827.264831 117342.051998 130430.261342
2026-02-08 63940.967826 73568.253843 83869.356008 95679.158438 108810.875547 122930.779149 139227.138496
2026-02-15 60325.385318 70862.859630 82320.765276 95657.699096 110705.895242 127109.606775 146292.260987
2026-02-22 58103.375521 69515.416531 82101.371766 96947.178878 113912.103697 132625.331178 154757.294866
2026-03-01 55922.867558 68054.103654 81609.662097 97795.510582 116507.849079 137371.793371 162300.769822
2026-03-08 53442.879334 66102.415455 80426.067978 97728.097292 117951.161404 140728.303888 168204.218631
2026-03-15 51429.627184 64587.832513 79650.198067 98041.023227 119755.302680 144440.038686 174478.421310
2026-03-22 50280.655603 64027.946376 79932.381407 99541.169929 122905.671937 149688.610608 182535.972834
2026-03-29 49019.738486 63265.592139 79916.088101 100637.198382 125543.193026 154320.466703 189876.323151
2026-04-05 47657.709545 62316.366265 79620.141291 101349.403545 127687.238443 158351.280791 196507.784131
2026-04-12 46059.079623 61033.210710 78888.557522 101516.204906 129176.023804 161626.259889 202292.983314
2026-04-19 44598.866884 59869.121390 78256.735599 101765.614965 130737.773912 164977.826904 208179.832242
2026-04-26 43066.413673 58557.566992 77392.202506 101682.420209 131857.157654 167774.403558 213392.652747
2026-05-03 42038.471275 57846.121085 77238.789246 102450.277533 134000.604091 171802.872728 220106.508871
2026-05-10 40700.000275 56688.676550 76482.925068 102426.303528 135134.029589 174582.685478 225296.407705
2026-05-17 40073.757277 56428.074221 76840.804151 103789.313783 137988.851499 179478.941763 233103.547384
2026-05-24 39275.153864 55911.737824 76847.068371 104686.043288 140247.996824 183642.208109 240025.934835
2026-05-31 38094.196669 54852.319219 76120.486005 104614.766605 141261.168779 186247.002999 245018.082054
2026-06-07 37143.788882 54069.516903 75725.039038 104945.548400 142767.749312 189460.002724 250774.255860
2026-06-14 36766.176343 54041.051150 76302.787254 106531.161874 145880.038510 194699.220299 259096.105201
2026-06-21 36232.346328 53781.240470 76560.923047 107689.480286 148441.141190 199253.267250 266581.745836